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Greek debt – remember the goats

Greece’s creditors have essentially let it off the hook by overwhelmingly agreeing to take a 74 percent loss.  So what better time to  remember  one of the first times Athens got in trouble with paying its debts.

In 490 BC, the bucolic plains before the town of Marathon were the site of a bloodbath. Invading Persians  lost a key battle against Greeks, who were led by the great Athenian warrior Kallimachos, aka Callimachus.

The trouble is, Kallimachos shares some of the difficulty with numbers that  modern Greek leaders appear to have.  Before launching himself upon the  Persians,  he  pledged to sacrifice a young goat to the Gods for every enemy that was killed.

His troops slaughtered some 6,400 invaders. Unfortunately the Athenians didn’t have that many young goats. So they had to spread the repayment and legend has it that it took them a century to honour the pledge.

Apparently, Zeus and the other Gods had not heard of the Institute of International Finance and were unwilling to take a 74 percent cut in goats.

 

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Greeks on the street

Greeks smashing windows and setting fire to shops and banks in a fury of opposition to yet more austerity is gripping.  But it is hardly unique. A few years ago there were similar scenes for weeks after police shot a 15-year old schoolboy.  And back when I lived there, U.S. President Bill Clinton was treated to a similar welcome — mainly because of his military assault on Serbia (a fellow Christian Orthodox nation) during the Kosovo conflict.

There are doubtless degrees. The latest level of destruction was the worst since widespread riots in 2008 — and austerity being imposed on Greeks is very painful. But it is worth noting that there are two underlying elements than make such uprisings more common in Greece than elsewhere.

The first is a division in Greek society that goes back to at least the end of the second world war. The civil war that followed the end of the German occupation was brutal and split the country between those wanting western free market democracy and those favouring Soviet-style communism. This carried though into the 1967-74 junta.

The second element is the role of outsiders on Greek history. The Civil War brought in western intervention and the junta got U.S. support — to the deep-seated bitterness of those on the other side. Going back further — and Greeks have long historic memories — there are Persians, crusaders, Nazi Germans and the particularly hated Ottomans trying to make Greeks be something other than Greek. Here is a feature on it.

Add to that mix the Washington-based International Monetary Fund, the Frankfurt-based European Central Bank, the Brussels-based European Commission, derisive artilces in British and German tabloids and a drumbeat of tough talk from Berlin.

This is what happens when Greeks get their backs up about foreigners telling them what to do.

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Whether you are a New England Patriots fan, a New York Giants supporter or a neutral, give us your views on the Indianapolis showpiece.

http://live.reuters.com/Event/NFL

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Paul Goldman / NBC News

Children shoot hoops in Jerusalem as part of the PeacePlayers International program.

By Paul Goldman, NBC News

JERUSALEM — “Shlomi, throw me the ball.”

“Assi, it’s your turn, pass and dribble.”

“Mahmud, great pass. What a basket.”

This might sound like a normal basketball game but it’s not. The unique endeavor can be best described as an “oasis of coexistence” in Israel where Jews, Muslims and Christians play not only on the same court but in mixed teams.


In 2001, American brothers Sean and Brendan Tuohey founded PeacePlayers International with the premise that children who play together can learn to live together.

It seemed quite obvious during my visit to practice that the Tuohey brothers were succeeding. Here on the court at the “Hand in Hand” bilingual school in Jerusalem, Israelis and Palestinians were laughing together, hugging each other and, most importantly, shooting the ball together.

“At first the kids and their parents were hesitant with some kids even crying,” says Karen Doubilet, who is the PeacePlayers International’s Middle East managing director. “But the transition is very fast, now they jump in joy and hug each other when they meet on and off the court.”

‘They are like me’
After experiencing so much hatred between Israelis and Palestinians, it was refreshing and exciting to see how naturally these kids reacted and played with each other.

Malak Ayub, 12, is a Muslim girl from the East Jerusalem village of Shoafat.

“Before I came to this program I thought Israelis only wanted to do bad things to us but now I see that they are like me, they want to play together,” she said.

One of Malak’s best friends is Hadas Prawer, a 14-year-old Israeli from the neighborhood of Mevaseret, which is located west of Jerusalem. I asked Hadas what she tells her friends when they hear she plays with Palestinians.

“I don’t care what people think or say, I’m having fun and that’s it,” she said, before turning around and giving Malak a huge hug.

The traditional Hanukkah ‘Sufganiyot’ — the Jewish ball-shaped doughnuts — were waiting on the sidelines as a reward for the kids’ hard work. All the children were wearing T-shirts with the US AID logo on the back, indicating the backing by the US.

“Basketball is huge, especially with the girls,” Doubilet added. “Most of these kids don’t have a constructive framework and we give them this activity almost for free. The relationships here will no doubt shape the way Israelis and Palestinians think of each other in the future”.

About 550 young people aged from six to 18 enrolled in this program in the past year, bridging communities in Israel like Jaffa, Tamra and Jerusalem where Jews and Muslims live next to each other. 

Haled Sabah is a 20-year-old Palestinian from Shoafat. He joined the program seven years ago and is now one of its coaches.

“I see some racism on both sides but when kids play on the same team they just see each other simply as people,” he said. 

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Adrienne Mong
All was quiet on the Demilitarized Zone on the Korean Peninsula on the Kim Jong Il’s state funeral took place.
SEOUL, South Korea — As one journalist put it, it said how much we all knew about North Korea that for the better part of Wednesday morning, most of the world remained in the dark about just when — if at all  — the state funeral for the country’s late leader Kim Jong Il had begun
But finally around 2 p.m in Seoul, a feed of the funeral proceedings began transmitting. We watched online, impressed by the staging and the direction. 

Thousands of people in olive drab stood under snowfall in front of the Kumsusan Memorial Palace — where Kim Jong Il’s body had been lying in state and where that of his father Kim Il Sung is also housed — as a procession of vehicles drove past, including the hearse led by Kim Jong Il’s son and successor, Kim Jong Un.
Under a dramatic soundtrack and the emotion-laden voice of a North Korean broadcaster, the continuous wailing of mourners could be heard. Cameras pushed into close-ups of rows and rows of men and women in military uniform sobbing. 
As the procession wound its way through Pyongyang and the snowfall grew heavier, footage of civilians began to appear.  Dressed in thick winter coats, they craned their necks and covered their mouths as they wept.  Those in the front — closest to the cameras —jumped up and down with great emotion.  Occasionally, a row of soldiers appeared expressionless and stoic.
 
Wednesday’s state funeral for North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il capped more than a week of public mourning. NBC’s Adrienne Mong reports.
As the video was broadcast — and despite the “live” banner on some cable stations, it was still unclear whether the footage was being transmitted live or had been recorded earlier until one news agency confirmed it was indeed the former.
The mood in Seoul was decidedly different.
‘Like father, like son’
Among a small community of North Koreans who fled their homeland years ago, there was scorn for the man they once called their “Dear Leader” and a touch of hope that his death may usher in long-awaited change.
“Kim Jong Il made three million people starve to death,” said Kim Jung-geum, a reporter and radio announcer with Free North Korea Radio.  She escaped from the North eight years ago and has been living in Seoul for the past six years.
“Initially I thought, wow, now we can go home. But the feeling didn’t last even a day,” said Kim Sung-min, founder of the station —which broadcasts a one-hour shortwave radio program back into the North every day.  
“It is the third generation leadership,” said Kim, who defected from North Korea 11 years ago. ”Like father, like son.  There is no hope. There is zero per cent chance of change as Kim Jong Un inheried Kim Jong Il’s system.”
Adrienne Mong
The streets of Seoul suggested it was business as usual in South Korea as Kim Jong Il’s state funeral was held.
His colleague was willing to be a bit more optimistic.  “The dictatorship is over,” said Kim Jung-geum quietly.  “A new era will begin with 2012.  I expect that.”
Both of them, however, did agree on one thing.  They remembered when North Korean founder Kim Il Sung died.
“I was so sad that I skipped two meals,” recalled Kim Sung-min, who was serving in the North Korean military in a northern province at the time.  “It was as if the sun had fallen to earth.”
“I cried for Kim Il Sung,” said Kim Jung-geum, who was a propaganda teacher at the time.  “We had a food ration system.  People had salaries then.  So I genuinely grieved for his death.”
Among South Koreans there was largely indifference.
A trio of college students said they were initially worried about the possible ramifications of Kim Jong Il’s death.  “But now I feel a lot better,” said Lee Kyung-min, more keen on visiting a nearby museum than thinking about regional security. None of them were interested in the funeral proceedings.
“It was big news,” said Cho Nam-hyun, a reporter for Dong-A Ilbo. “But personally, I think of it just as a head of state who died.”
The indifference doesn’t come as a surprise to analysts in South Korea. 
“We’ve been living under the gun for the past 60 years,” said Dr. Hahm Chaibong, president of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.  “You can’t count the number of crises that we’ve had over the years.  Be it assassinations, commando raids, downing of airplanes, terrorist bombings, and of course more recently nuclear experiments and shelling of islands.”
Hahm also offered a final somber thought.
“By and large everyone has learned a lesson as far as to what to expect,” he said.  “Everybody knows that there isn’t all that much to expect in terms of radical change….  If North Korea is going to change, it’s not going to because of something we do in the outside world.  They will be the ones who will be undertaking changes because they think it’s necessary and because they decide it’s time they do it.”
Follow NBC News’ Adrienne Mong (@adriennemong) on Twitter.
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ISLAMABAD – After a decade of diplomatic crises, see-sawing tensions, and increasing frustration on both sides, 2012 promises to mark the re-defining moment for the alliance between the U.S. and Pakistan.

The last decade has seen a growing sense of dissatisfaction in American circles at Pakistan’s unwillingness or inability to tackle its extremist elements in the way the U.S. wishes, combined with deepening resentment in Pakistan about what’s seen as America’s “imperial” attitude.


“We are blamed for U.S. failures, all that happens in Afghanistan is attributed to Pakistan,” said one Pakistani military official. “We have had enough. The U.S. should take their business elsewhere.”

Asif Hassan / AFP – Getty Images

Women supporters of Pakistani political and Islamic party Jammat-e-Islami (JI), stage an anti-US protest rally in Karachi on December 20.

To that end, Pakistan recently kicked a leg out from under the American mission in neighboring Afghanistan, shutting down the NATO supply routes after a deadly cross-border attack in late November in which 24 Pakistani soldiers were killed at two border posts. After a year of diplomatic clashes and public tongue-lashings, it is this incident that seems to have caused the most severe rupture in relations and made the alliance much more difficult to mend.

The U.S. military investigation into the episode found that Pakistani troops had fired first, but laid blame with both sides for an inherent mistrust and subsequent miscommunications that led to the exchange of fire. The Pakistan military, which declined to participate in the American investigation, has yet to release its own detailed findings, but did issue a terse statement in response to the initial U.S. release, calling their inquiry “short on facts.” 

Documents shared with NBC News from the Pakistan military’s internal incident briefing show a significant divergence of narratives that could prove problematic for the two countries to ultimately reconcile. 

The U.S. report, based on an unclassified version released publicly last week, stated the Pakistan military “did not provide information identifying” the locations of the border posts that were attacked. In contrast, the Pakistani military’s incident briefing concluded: “It is not possible that ISAF/NATO did not know these to be our posts.” A Pakistani military official told NBC News in early December that the posts had been established “almost three months ago,” and “soon after” they were established, “ISAF forces are notified through Liaison Officer at BCC [Border Coordination Center] and were provided with all necessary information.”

The timeline established in the U.S. report includes the determination that the first shots were fired from Pakistan’s side of the border, stating that “Machine gun and mortar fire…from the border ridge line was the catalyst for engagement.” Subsequent firing by Coalition forces, the investigation found, “was executed in self defense.” Pakistani officials have maintained, both in public statements and in internal military documents, that the attack “was an unprovoked act of blatant aggression.”

Though cross border attacks have occurred before, the reaction by Pakistan’s establishment to this latest attack has been much more fierce than in years past — a function, some analysts say, of the higher death toll, as well as the country’s current state of affairs. 

Defense analyst Ayesha Siddiqa, author of “Military Inc.”, believes Pakistan’s own evolution over the last decade contributed to its response.

“It no longer sees itself as this tiny, timid country, always on the defensive,” said Siddiqa. “It’s a country which has a medium-sized military power, nuclear weapons, and the vanity which comes with having this non-conventional defense. So it wants to be taken more seriously. And it doesn’t want to compromise on that.”

The U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan, Cameron Munter, insists that despite the tensions, the lines of communication “at the highest civilian and military levels” remain open. 

“General Dempsey has spoken with General Kayani. General Mattis has spoken with Kayani. I have met with Foreign Minister Khar,” said Munter. “We are committed to our relationship.” 

Faisal Mahmood / Reuters

Images of daily life, political pursuits, religious rites and deadly violence.

That relationship, according to Pakistani military and government officials, will have to take on a different form in the year ahead.

“The arrangement will now be formalized and reduced to writing,” said a Pakistani government official. “Even if the Government was to restore some concessions, the Army will not forget the spilling of blood.”

Pakistan’s Parliamentary Committee on National Security is said to be reviewing the US-Pakistan relationship and is preparing recommendations to present to the government. Back-channel negotiations are reportedly ongoing at all levels, but so far, the supply lines remain closed and the public sentiment remains strongly anti-American. 

Siddiqa believes the longer this continues, the more difficult it will be to bring on board the general population with any attempt to reconcile political and military relations. 

“There is this narrative that’s been built, vis-a-vis the U.S. in the past four or five years,” said Siddiqa. “It’s been so negative, that socially, it will be difficult to build back up that relationship.”

In these early days of the new year, there is not yet a clear indication of how and when that rebuilding will occur. 

“We could not be good allies,” said one Pakistani military official. “At least let us be better strangers.”

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When former foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said this weekend that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are not safe under President Asif Ali Zardari, he almost certainly did not mean that the nuclear arsenal is not secure. The nuclear weapons have little to do with the civilian government; they are guarded ferociously by the Pakistan Army both against terrorist attacks and any foreign or U.S. attempt to seize them, and, as a matter of pride for Pakistanis chafing at any American suggestions otherwise,  safeguarded to international standards.

Rather it was a rhetorical device to attack the government at a rally where Qureshi announced he was joining the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) , the party of former cricket star Imran Khan, a rising force in Pakistani politics.  Qureshi’s assertion tapped into growing anti-Americanism, and a populist view that the  civilian government led by the Pakistan People’s Party, to which he once belonged, had somehow sold the country’s honour – in this case symbolised by nuclear weapons – in return for American aid.  (Pakistan first agreed its uneasy alliance with the United States under former military ruler Pervez Musharraf.)

Yet it is a measure of how distorted and narrow political discourse has become within Pakistan that Qureshi might use the safety of nuclear weapons to attack the government. That political discourse, difficult even at the best of times, is likely to become even narrower in the fury which has followed the NATO airstrikes which killed 24 Pakistani soldiers on the border with Afghanistan on Saturday. 

The attack, which Pakistan says was unprovoked and NATO described as a “tragic, unintended incident”, has outraged Pakistanis who have already endured thousands of casualties in a war they believe was forced on them by the United States.

Underneath the confusion about the aims and course of the Afghan war, lies a deep sense of hurt that Pakistani lives are somehow less valued than American lives, and a painful loss of pride over the country’s inability to defend its territory from attacks by a foreign, and apparently hostile, power – whether from airstrikes, drones, or even the May raid by U.S. forces who killed Osama bin Laden.

The result is a society which is being shaped by the Afghan war in ways which neither Pakistan’s neighbours, nor western powers, would choose.  The airstrikes, coming soon after the forced resignation of Pakistan’s ambassador to Washington Husain Haqqani for allegedly seeking American help to curb the power of the military, have added fresh oxygen to a combustible mix of anti-Americanism and religious nationalism enveloping Pakistan.  Haqqani denies the allegation, but the so-called “Memogate” scandal has badly weakened the civilian government, while the airstrikes have rallied the country behind the army.

In such an environment, there is little room for a discourse that might suggest Pakistanis should also be outraged at the deaths of civilians blown up by suicide bombers sent by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and therefore discuss ways to turn decisively against Islamist militants. Nor is there space for a realistic political debate on how Pakistan should manage its foreign relations that goes beyond a hatred of America and an illusory faith in China’s readiness to ride to the rescue

Before the latest crisis, the government  had been pushing through legislative reforms to help democracy take root in Pakistan. It is difficult to see these making much more progress now as the government fights for survival. The tedious mechanics of documenting the economy, as a first step towards increasing the tax base and raising revenues, dropped off the political agenda long ago.

Expectations that the civilian government could become the first in Pakistan’s history to complete its term and be replaced by another democratically elected government are being lowered by the day as the politicians descend into the kind of internecine feuds typical of the 1990s. That decade ended in Musharraf’s military coup in 1999. 

The next casualty of the rising tide of nationalism could well be Pakistan’s warming ties with India – one of the few relationships in the region that until now had been going well.   The civilian government had eased itself into the driving seat in pushing for improved trade relations with India, though no one would suggest that it made the progress it did without the approval of the Pakistan Army. It has a particular interest in better ties with India - the army has drawn its power from a perceived need to defend the country against an Indian threat, contributing to Pakistan’s civilian-military imbalance. 

So when Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his Pakistani counterpart Yusuf Raza Gilani joined each other in early April to watch the Pakistan-India cricket semi-final in the town of Mohali,  they discussed a Pakistani appeal that India drop its opposition to an EU duty waiver on Pakistani textiles exports.  By the end of April, it was becoming clear that improved trade ties could be a game-changer.  (Pakistan had earlier resisted improving trade without first settling the Kashmir dispute.)  By early November, New Delhi agreed to the EU duty waiver and, more significantly, Pakistan granted Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to India.

That mood has changed.  Reports have begun to surface in the Pakistani media that the army has reservations about granting MFN status to India. The Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD), the humanitarian wing of the banned Lashkar-e-Taiba militant group,  and an organisation close to the military,  has launched protests against granting India MFN status, saying that the Kashmir dispute must be settled first. 

After the NATO airstrikes, a JuD protest to mourn the Pakistani soldiers killed turned quickly into a protest against improved trade ties with India. While the government may yet be able to push ahead with its India agenda – albeit on a very tight military leash – the signs are not looking good.

Progress in relations with India had become – quite unexpectedly – one of the few release valves left to ease off the pressures building up within Pakistan.  On its western border, the United States and its allies are pushing ahead with an agenda in Afghanistan which has already integrated the possibility there will be no early peace settlement with Afghan insurgents - an idea long sought by Pakistan.   And while Pakistan won some initial sympathy from foreign governments over the NATO airstrikes, its decision to boycott next week’s international conference on Afghanistan in Bonn, will - at least symbolically – highlight its isolation. It is beginning to look like a country turning in on itself in dangerous ways.

We have always known there was a risk that Pakistan could become to Afghanistan what Cambodia was to Vietnam - a country horribly destabilised by an American war spilling across its borders.  We are not there yet. Perhaps those who say all will be well when the United States leaves the region will prove right – American influence for decades has tended to be toxic to Pakistan.

 But pay attention to the domestic political discourse.  There  is no point in winning the battle in Afghanistan and losing the war in Pakistan.

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Pakistani novelist Mohsin Hamid may have captured something rather interesting in his short story published this month by  The Guardian.   And it is not as obvious as it looks.

In “Terminator: Attack of the Drone”, Hamid imagines life in Pakistan’s tribal areas bordering Afghanistan under constant attack from U.S. drone bombings.  His narrator is one of two boys who go out one night to try to attack a drone.

 ”The machines are huntin’ tonight,” the narrator says.  “There ain’t many of us left. Humans I mean. Most people who could do already escaped. Or tried to escape anyways. I don’t know what happened to ‘em. But we couldn’t. Ma lost her leg to a landmine and can’t walk. Sometimes she gets outside the cabin with a stick. Mostly she stays in and crawls. The girls do the work. I’m the man now.

“Pa’s gone. The machines got him. I didn’t see it happen but my uncle came back for me. Took me to see Pa gettin’ buried in the ground. There wasn’t anythin’ of Pa I could see that let me know it was Pa. When the machines get you there ain’t much left. Just gristle mixed with rocks, covered in dust.”

It is powerful stuff, told in the language of a black American slave in the style of Toni Morrison’s “Beloved”.  It vividly captures the terror inspired by drones, and the helplessness of the people who live in the tribal areas. But is it true? And does it matter?

In a discussion on Twitter, literary critic Faiza S. Khan, who tweets @BhopalHouse, argued that the story should be judged as a work of fiction rather than taken as reportage. A fair point. But what if we turn this around and consider the story as reportage, not of the tribal areas and the drones, but of the way these are imagined in Pakistan’s Punjabi heartland? As a writer who spends part of his time in Lahore, capital of Punjab, Hamid can be considered representative of at least part of that Punjabi imagination.

We will return to the short story later, but first step back a bit and consider that the narrative gaining traction, at least in urban Punjab, is that the people of the tribal areas have been radicalised by American drone attacks.  Pakistan’s rising political star, Imran Khan,  attracted tens of thousands to a rally in Lahore last month with a version of this narrative. Stop the drones, and the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), or Pakistani Taliban, can be engaged in peace talks to end a wave of bombings across Pakistan. 

The simplicity of this narrative is beguiling. At a stroke it taps into the anti-Americanism prevalent in Pakistan and also promises peace. Yet it is incredibly problematic. Bear with me – this is not a defence of drones per se.  The use of “machines” to fight a war is disturbing, as indeed is the use of snipers in their capacity for personalised targetting by an unseen hand.  Emotionally, I would be far more scared of drones and snipers than I would be of artillery and airstrikes,  even if I knew the latter two were more likely to kill me. And nor is it a defence of the way the United States has fought its war in Afghanistan - the risks of the Afghan war going wrong have been obvious from the start to anyone with a knowledge of history.  But those are different subjects. This is about how the drone campaign is perceived in mainland Pakistan, and perhaps particularly in Punjab.

The first problem with the narrative is that it slides over the fact that radicalisation in the tribal areas (and Pakistan as a whole) began long before the U.S. drone campaign.  Many ascribe it to Pakistani support for the United States in backing the jihad against the Soviet Union after the Russians invaded Afghanistan in 1979.  I might go further back, perhaps to the 1973 oil boom when a disproportionate number of Pashtun from the tribal areas went to seek work in the Gulf . The results were twofold – the migrant workers were exposed to the Wahhabi puritanical Saudi Arabian tradition of Islam, and the remittances they sent home upset the traditional balance of power in the local economy.  I could go back even further, to the origins of the Pakistani state in 1947 and its use of Islam as a unifying force to counter ethnic nationalism, including Pashtun nationalism.  In short – it is complicated. Stopping drones may or may not be a moral imperative, depending on your perspective. But let’s not be fooled into thinking that in itself, it will bring peace.

Secondly, the narrative on drone attacks takes at face value assertions that they cause high numbers of civilian casualties.  The Americans say they are precise; their critics say they are lying; the rest of us simply don’t, and can’t, know the truth.  With little independent reporting on the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), we can’t possibly verify whether the claims of civilian casualties are accurate. We don’t know for sure the numbers of the dead, let alone whether among those dead were Taliban foot soldiers who are also civilians.

What I have noticed however, is that at least some among the Pashtun intelligentsia say the drone strikes are precise, and that opposition to them increases the further away you get from the tribal areas.  Earlier this year, a senior Pakistani military officer was quoted as saying that ”a majority of those eliminated are terrorists, including foreign terrorist elements”. Writer and academic Farhat Taj has taken this argument further by saying that people actually prefer drone strikes to living in fear of the Taliban and their foreign allies.

Now I don’t know the truth. I have been to the tribal areas only once, on a one-day army-supervised trip to Bajaur.  Incidentally, I was struck by how far the landscape differed from my own Kiplingesque imaginings of “the Frontier”. In Bajaur, I saw agricultural prosperity, neatly laid out fields,  and mountains which  in relative terms (ie compared to Siachen, the Karakoram and even the barren mountains of Scotland) seemed unexpectedly tame. I gather other parts of FATA are wilder, but that Bajaur trip was a lesson for me in how far my imagination (no doubt heavily influenced by colonial literature) was very different from reality. Many Pakistanis never get a chance to visit FATA at all – and so it remains in the Pakistani heartland as much of an imagined frontier as it was under the Raj.

So to get back to the drones, let’s for a moment take the prevalent view that Pakistan is fighting “America’s war” out of the discussion and consider what the people of FATA themselves think about drone attacks and peace talks with the Taliban.  As the people who suffer most at the hands of the Pakistani Taliban, their views - at least from a moral point of view – should predominate in any Pakistani discourse which set itself up as idealistic. What do they say?

This brings me to the most problematic part of the narrative, and loops back into Hamid’s short story. In the “stop the drones, win the peace argument”, the people of FATA are crucially assumed not to be able to speak for themselves. They are frozen in time in an  idealised village life, people who will revert to their ancient traditions as soon as the drones and the Afghan war ends, as though the last 60 years of history never happened. As though not not one of them had ever got on a plane, worked in the Gulf, or migrated to Karachi.

Look at how they are portrayed in Hamid’s story (though since I have not asked him, I will concede this may have been an intentional parody of the way the people of FATA are often viewed).

In his story, our characters have no ability to grasp the big world events that have brought the machines to their land.  They speak in the language of black American slaves. The narrator’s mother is compared to an animal, “snorin’ like an old brown bear after a dogfight”. Their primitiveness is underlined by the sexualisation of the weapon assembled by the two boys to attack the drone:  ”We put the he-piece in the she-piece”.

They are reduced to the cipher of  “the noble savage“.

It is true that the people of FATA do not tend to speak for themselves. But given the scale of bombings and assassinations, fear seems to be a more likely explanation than an inability to articulate their thoughts.

And it is also true that they are not even proper citizens. Rather they are subject to the Frontier Crimes Regulation – a draconian colonial-era law which makes them liable to collective punishment, and which is only slowly being reformed by the Pakistani government.  The eventual abolition of the FCR, the incorporation of FATA into Pakistan, and other reforms meant to decentralise and accommodate Pakistan’s different ethnic groups, would arguably be far more effective in the long run in allowing the country’s Punjabi heartland to make peace with the Pashtun in the tribal areas, more even than ending drone strikes.

You will find people who argue you can do both – abolish the FCR and end drone strikes. But how can you tell? How do you make peace with a particular group and work out what suits them best, unless they are represented politically?  (Holding peace talks with the Pakistani Taliban is not the same.)

Now reread Hamid’s piece and consider the gap between the characters imagined in his short story, and a people with full citizenship rights and political representation.  As Fazia S. Khan said, judge it as a work of fiction.  But as a window into the Punjabi imagination, it may also have  its uses as a political document.

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A strategic partnership agreement between India and Afghanistan would ordinarily have evoked howls of protest from Pakistan which has long regarded its western neighbour as part of its sphere of influence.  Islamabad has, in the past, made no secret of its displeasure at India’s role in Afghanistan including  a$2 billion aid effort that has won it goodwill among the Afghan  people, but which Pakistan sees as New Delhi’s way to expand influence. 

Instead the reaction to the pact signed last month during President Hamid Karzai’s visit to New Delhi, the first Kabul had done with any country, was decidedly muted. Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani  said India and Afghanistan were “both sovereign countries and they have the right to do whatever they want to.”  The Pakistani foreign office echoed Gilani’s comments, adding only that regional stability should be preserved. It cried off further comment, saying it was studying the pact.

It continued to hold discussions, meanwhile, on the grant of the Most Favoured Nation to India as part of moves to normalise ties. Late last month the cabinet cleared the MFN, 15 years after New Delhi accorded Pakistan the same status so that the two could conduct trade like nations do around the world, even those with differences.

And on Thursday, Gilani met Indian counterpart Manmohan Singh on the margins of a regional summit in the Maldives and the two promised a new chapter in ties, saying the next round of talks between officials as part of an engagement on a range of issues will produce results. Afghanistan or the pact, was scarcely mentioned in public, although it is quite conceivable that the two would have talked about it.

Is there a shift in the ground, in both India and Pakistan ?  Pakistan is battling multiple  crises, including ties with the United States that at the moment certainly look worse than those with India. It is also struggling to tackle a melange of militant groups that have metastasized into a mortal danger for the Pakistani state itself and a deep economic downturn that a nation of 180 million people can ill-afford at this time. While it continues to invest time and energy in Afghanistan, a large part of the war has come home too and it is struggling to enforce its writ on its side of the Pasthun-dominated lands that straddle the two countries. A lessening of tensions with India can only help at this point.

India, meanwhile, has shot out of the blocks building a trillion-dollar economy  that dwarfs everyone else’s in the region, not just in size but also growth rates even if  it is slowing down now. It still has a long way to go to meet the aspirations of a billion plus people and realise its own potential, though. It needs peace within and on the borders and it needs closer economic ties with  all its neighbours.  Its economic stakes are rising across the region including Afghanistan where Indian firms, along with the Chinese who preceded them, are the only ones prepared to risk blood and treasure to exploit its mineral resources. Conversely if a pomegranate farmer in southern Afghanistan- the Taliban heartland – wants to sell his produce to the booming Indian market,  New Delhi wants to do whatever it can to try and make that possible.

A hostile Pakistan until now has balked at trade and transit, but  if India and Pakistan begin to have normal trade ties following the breakthrough on MFN, then easier flow of goods from Afghanistan seems a natural possibility. The long-running project to pipe gas from Turkmenistan and through Afghanistan, Pakistan and then India may seem less of a dream as the economies of India and Pakistan begin to interlock and both sides develop stakes in the well being of the other to protect their investments and trade.

Indeed, Sajjad Ashraf, a former Pakistan ambassador to Singapore and now a professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, cautioned against a knee-jerk Pakistani reaction to the Indo-Afghan treaty. In a paper for the Institute of South Asian Studies, he said that  a careful reading of the pact suggests that the countries involved want to develop Afghanistan as a hub linking South and Central Asia since it sits in both regions.  Which isn’t such a bad thing  for the countries of south Asia but especially Pakistan which by its geography as landlocked Afghanistan’s neighbour with the longest  border has a key role to play.Ashraf said :

“If the three countries can reach an understanding and let India develop Afghan capacity leading to regional economic integration, Pakistan too becomes a winner. In the age of globalisation, following any other course will result in Pakistan lagging behind.

For India, peace in Afghanistan is important to be able to exploit the vast economic potential of the Central Asian states. It shares Afghanistan’s concerns about the security of the nation after the western withdrawal from a combat role in 2014. Ashraf wrote :

India is concerned, which everyone should be, at the return of a medieval Taliban like regime in Kabul that could become the staging ground for cross border extremism into India.

It makes little sense for India to keep the borders with Pakistan tense, least of all turning up the heat on its western flank with Afghanistan, Ashraf said. India doesn’t have a contiguous border with Afghanistan and the last thing it needs is a costly entanglement there.   Besides, it is obvious to everyone, including the stategic community in India, that there cannot be lasting peace in Afghanistan without the support of Pakistan.  

 Pakistan’s security establishment would worry about potential security cooperation between India and Afghanistan flowing from the strategic pact. ( A separate one is under negotiations with the United States) But so far New Delhi had been sensitive to Pakistani concerns, according to U.S. Under Secretary of Defence  for Policy Michele Flournoy.   She said New Delhi had avoided a playing  a major role in the training of Afghan security forces.

Ultimately, the key to Afghanistan’s future was unlocking its potential, tying it into the economies of its neighbours and hope that it will strengthen the state to stand firmly on its feet once its powerful backers retreat three years from now.  

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Europe can’t put out the blaze

If the world thought that Europe’s finance ministers were running in to put out the blaze spreading through Athens and Rome this week, it might come as a surprise to learn they still don’t agree on the size of the fire or how to deal with it.

Any training course will tell you that if a small fire isn’t tackled quickly, it could make things a lot worse. The Greek crisis is like a small electrical fire that has grown into a dangerous inferno now threatening to gut Italy.

But ministers meeting in Brussels have clearly not been on any fire extinguisher training courses lately — they don’t know their water from their foam and their dry powder. In fact, they appear to be pouring oil on the fire.

Belgium’s Finance Minister Didier Reynders says it is best to try to smother the blaze with a small cloth soaked in a chemical called a financial transaction tax, while Sweden’s Anders Borg and Austria’s Maria Fekter say they can’t spare any of their CO2 extinguishers.

“Italy can achieve a lot from its own doing,” Fekter told reporters who were watching the fire grow closer. Borg, Fekter and others are sure the Italians in the burning building down the street will be able to sort things out themselves.

Spain’s Elena Salgado is meanwhile clearly upset that the smoke from that fire is billowing into her garden, but France’s Francois Baroin says there was no need to reach for a fire hose: “Tout va bien” (Everything’s going well), he said, wiping his brow from the heat.
A combustible mix of hot air and faulty wiring seem to be one assessment of the causes of the euro zone flames, which no one is really willing to consider. But as the sound of emergency sirens grows louder, it may be time to remove the safety pin from the extinguisher marked “European Central Bank” — it may be the only way to remove all the oxygen feeding the fire.

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